BENJAMIN D. SUMMERS

The Standard Model of Complex Economic Systems [WORKING PAPER]

(This working paper presents the comprehensive theoretical and empirical framework underlying Adagio Group's successful investment strategies, now being transitioned to academic publication. Components of this framework are being prepared for submission to peer-reviewed journals.)

This paper introduces a comprehensive theoretical framework termed ”The Standard Model of Complex Economic Systems” that bridges econophysics, signal processing, and portfolio theory using Hilbert space methods. We develop a unified approach that integrates fundamental analysis with sophisticated quantitative methods, applying Bayesian inference in function spaces to signals extracted from spectral analysis, wavelet decomposition, and operator-theoretic analysis of financial time series. The primary objective is to optimize the Omega ratio for leveraged liquid assets that have passed specific fundamental screening criteria. This dual-methodology approach addresses a significant gap in current practice: fundamental analysis establishes intrinsic value baselines while Hilbert space methods identify market signals that enable predictive modeling of period total returns. We introduce the Summers Total Risk-Adjusted Performance Measure (Summers Measure) with functional extensions that provide improved interpretability while preserving higher-moment sensitivity. Empirical testing demonstrates that our approach significantly outperforms traditional optimization techniques, particularly during market regime transitions and periods of high volatility. The framework contributes to the theoretical understanding of financial markets as complex adaptive systems while offering practical applications for investment management. By providing a physically interpretable model of market dynamics grounded in functional analysis, this paper establishes a foundation for a new paradigm in quantitative finance.

An Intuitive True Total Risk-Adjusted Performance Measure and Characteristics Matrix

Keating and Shadwick’s Omega ratio captures all four statistical moments of risk but has practical limitations with respect to portfolio optimization. Kapsos et al. simplified the Omega ratio into an expression with better practical application, but its focus as a portfolio optimization tool represents a trade-off with respect to absolute risk-adjusted performance measurement. First, we've transformed the Kapsos form of the Omega ratio in an analogous manner to what Modigliani did with the Sharpe ratio to create an intuitive percentage output scaled against the market. Second, we’ve deconstructed the Kapsos form of Omega to create a 3 x 1 matrix that measures and intuitively communicates the three fundamental characteristics that define an investment: risk, return, and liquidity.

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